ESTIMATION OF STATISTICAL ELECTRIC ENERGY DEMAND PROFILES FOR RURAL ELECTRIFICATION WITH PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS IN NORTHERN BRAZIL

Abstract

This study presents an alternative approach on energy demand estimation for rural electrification projects. Instead of approaches based on field studies with extensive sample sizes or simplified basic needs assumptions, the presented approach uses regional socio-economic statistic datasets available from state agencies along with energy consumption data from the utilities’ client data base. Developed and tested for the current Brazilian electrification program, consumption data of selected Brazilian municipalities were combined with socio-economic data of the same municipalities and analysed by multiple regressions. Extrapolating the correlations obtained, energy demand estimates for all of the hundreds of municipalities in northern Brazil can be produced. To adopt the estimates for the purpose of rural electrification projects, the impact of the remoteness of individual settlements as well as the impact of the progressively increasing electrification rate on the energy demand profile has further been investigated. The approach finally allows to use the statistical demand profiles in form of gamma distribution function as basis for the design of rural electrification programs and dimensioning of the energy supply system, which is especially critical in isolated solar power supply systems (solar home systems or PV-hybrid minigrids) where system size and thus investment cost has to be balanced with consumer satisfaction in meeting the energy demand.