METHODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING THE LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY USING RELIABILITY

Abstract

This paper proposes a new methodology for estimating the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE), operations and maintenance costs (OPEX) and availability of a Photovoltaic plant. Traditional LCOE estimation method uses arbitrary percentage of invested capital (CAPEX) as maintenance costs. Moreover, the delivered energy calculation does not include the production loss due to component failures. To address these issues the model takes into consideration the throughput of each component, operations costs, crew and spare parts management strategy, statistical models for times and failures. The results of a case study with three different topologies (centralized inverter, four inverter and string inverter) show that the maintenance costs varies from R$ 18,015.54 to R$ 36,740.05; LCOE from 260.36 R$/MWh to 340.22 R$/MWh and availability from 98.53% to 99.01%. Finally, when compared to the usual LCOE estimation method, the highest difference was observed for the String Inverter topology where the energy cost is 10.11% higher. These variations indicates that the topology and operations strategy have appreciable impact in LCOE, OPEX and availability.