METHOD FOR CALCULATION OF UNCERTAINTY PROPAGATION IN ESTIMATE POWER GENERATION FOR PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59627/cbens.2016.1793Keywords:
Uncertainty propagation, Generation estimate, Photovoltaics systems.Abstract
In recent years, the photovoltaic market in Brazil is maturing and thus, investment growth in the sector and consequently large solar power plants projects or through distributed generation. So increasingly, investor confidence will depend on the energy forecast generated by these photovoltaic systems particularly in performance contracts. Thus, for the realization of the same, a sequence of energy conversion and insertion of parameters is required in a process of mathematical modeling of the system, and each of these are related to a particular type uncertainty. The uncertainties in these models, increase from several sources and consequently, these uncertainties contribute to the overall uncertainty in predicting the system power production. Therefore, in this work, uncertainties are identified, described and quantified by a simple statistical method however, consistently, to calculate the propagation of uncertainty in power generation. This method was implement in MATLAB © and applied to a two micro PV generators installed in different locations.
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