MODELING, SIMULATION AND FORECASTING OF ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES IN THE BOLIVIAN ALTIPLANO REGION

Authors

  • Gimmy Nardó Sanjinés Tudela Escuela Militar de Ingeniería

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.59627/cbens.2012.1822

Keywords:

Modeling, Simulation, Forecast, Climate Variables

Abstract

In the present research the work consists of the analysis, modeling, simulation and prediction of actual data in the Altiplano region of Bolivia where he highlights the most important climatic factors given by the World Meteorological Organization. For the present study we selected the following climatic variables: solar radiation, mean temperature, heliophany, relative humidity, rainfall, clouds, high temperature, and low temperature. The first four mentioned variables are taken at an interval of 6 years, from 2002 to 2008, was collected every day, making a total of 2190 measurements for each factor and the other at an interval of 50 years, from 1958 to 2008, was collected month to month. The reason for said sampling interval is that some events such as rainfall, for example, may or may not occur for long periods of time. The main contribution is made is the formal description of the patterns involved in the time series by harmonic spectral analysis and modeling which is complemented by the application of modeling arima (p, d, q) Sarima (P, D, Q) for forecast short-term . The artificial series is created through by simulation. Finally it is concluded that modeling can be used for the correct location and application of technologies for generating clean energy.

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Author Biography

Gimmy Nardó Sanjinés Tudela, Escuela Militar de Ingeniería

Escuela Militar de Ingeniería “Mcal. Antonio José de Sucre”

References

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Published

2012-12-21

How to Cite

Tudela, G. N. S. (2012). MODELING, SIMULATION AND FORECASTING OF ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES IN THE BOLIVIAN ALTIPLANO REGION. Anais Congresso Brasileiro De Energia Solar - CBENS. https://doi.org/10.59627/cbens.2012.1822

Issue

Section

Anais