ESTIMATES OF GLOBAL SOLAR RADIATION BY DIFFERENT REGRESSION METHODS BASED ON SUNSHINE DURATION
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59627/cbens.2024.2459Keywords:
Solar Radiation Modeling, Regression MethodsAbstract
The objective of this study was to assess different methods for estimating global solar radiation on a horizontal surface at a daily scale (MJ/m2/day) in the city of Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil. In addition to the traditional linear method of Angstrom-Prescott, polynomial functions of degree 2 to degree 4, as well as logarithmic and exponential approaches, were considered. Sunshine duration data used to develop empirical models were collected by software using digital image processing techniques. The period from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2015, was chosen for developing the empirical models. The performance of the empirical models was evaluated through indicators such as MBE, rMBE, RMSE, rRMSE, and r. To rank the models based on performance, the Global Performance Index (GPI) was utilized. The use of GPI simplified the performance analysis of empirical models, allowing the integration of individual indicator results into a single value. The polynomial model of degree 3 demonstrated higher accuracy in estimating global solar radiation in the city of Botucatu.
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