ANALYSIS OF GENERATION COMPLEMENTARITY WIND AND PHOTOVOLTAIC IN BAHIA

Abstract

One of the challenges in the use of renewable energy is the lack of forecasting of natural resources that only produce in favorable environmental conditions. One solution to this problem is the combination of renewable sources, in such a way that generations tend to increase, generating a favorable outcome during the year. But to do this, it is necessary to analyze the sources in order to find systems that complement each other efficiently. Considering the growth of wind and photovoltaic plants, this study focuses on analyzing the correlation of the two energy sources in view of the characteristics that are related both in monthly and hourly terms. Furthermore, it becomes necessary to visualize the fluctuations of these sources throughout the day and year. Real power and capacity factor data from two wind farms and two photovoltaic farms were collected jointly from the National Electric System Operator (ONS) during the period from 2020 to 2022, namely BJL Solar, Sertão Solar Barreiras, Brotas de Macaúbas and Morro do Chapéu Sul. The analyzes are composed of two stages, the first of which aims to visualize the wind and photovoltaic generation profile throughout the period of data collected and the second analyzes the hourly complementarity between the sources through graphs and statistical calculations such as the Person Correlation Coefficient (CCP). The calculations indicated a negative association between the sets, suggesting complementarity between wind and photovoltaic energies. The monthly CCPs ranged from -0.7 to -0.8, demonstrating parallelism, in which the increase in generation from one source results in the attenuation of the other, ultimately obtaining more stable and reliable energy generation.